Are office buildings the 21st century equivalent of industrial revolution age mills?
Are office buildings the 21st century equivalent of industrial revolution age mills? What will be the future of office buildings? Office buildings are an innovation of the past hundred years and emerged largely in the aftermath of the industrial revolution at the beginning of the 20th century. Since then office buildings have grown in size and have adopted a unique style to accommodate the clerical work required for many organizations; however emerging digital technologies and mobile devices have allowed for the reorganization of the workplace and will further influence the demand for physical space as work environments transform. New lifestyle patterns are affecting demand for physical space and more importantly the location of the space. It is much easier for workers to connect virtually to their place of work and not rely on a physical desk at a specific locations. Obviously many organizations will need to retain an address as a depository for information and as a central meeting location, but space demand will be significantly less. Mill factories were an incarnation of the industrial age, and ran their course of operational utility as they were no longer suitable for the new economy which developed. Many mills stood dormant for a long period of time until as of recently it was in became an attractive to re-purpose into residential units. The structures proved to be solid since they at one point housed machinery requiring substantial support, and the interiors are fairly spacious, but many of the buildings were empty and the previous owner was willing to sell at low rates. Economically the conversion from mill to housing has been beneficial as many are desired because they are located in urban areas. This leads me to predict the future of office buildings, and because there will be a decrease in space demand there seems to be an opportunity to capture the value of converting office buildings into residential space. An attractive feature of buildings built primarily for offices are the large floor plates allowing for larger than average residential units. Zoning requirements would have to be evaluated before converting a buildings. Larger units will attract larger families and may trigger a community to require the integration of school into the buildings to accommodate the influx of children. Additional functions could be in a building that serves both residential and office space and maybe even synergies of circulation space by including cafes and gyms. The workforce of the future will value proximity and livability of their community which can be enhanced by mixed-use buildings. We believe the notion that offices are a distinct building , but the evolution of office space will change our perceptions and possibly redefine work. Real Estate developers value an office building by the cash flow and the security of leases, and the current model for valuation will need to be adapted to conform to the changing landscape. Perhaps office space aligns to become similar to the apartment market and and landlords provide space which is already fit-out, but a revolving door tenants will require more work to attract and be retained. Will we allow office buildings to become dormant as vacancies increase, or will we re-purpose the space to generate housing in urban centers and potentially create a more vibrant attractive community.
Predicting The Next Bubble
Are internet companies doomed for another bubble burst? Everyday techcrunch.com lists another startup funded by venture capitalists in an effort to be the next Facebook, and after witnessing the over zealous investors pick up shares of LinkedIn there seems to be investment in just about every new idea, Law of Averages?. Theres a race to get into the venture capital game to fund these companies in hopes that they will succeed. Are the values that investors place on these service sector companies realistic? I don’t think they will be wildly successful. Could the pursuit of service sector technologies be the result of our education system, which has not encouraged students to study the sciences? There are too many startups whose cash flow models rely on a critical mass of society adopting the service. The baby boomers will probably not adopt the new innovations en masse; however new generations will adopt and embrace the change. Unfortunately the younger generations do not yet have disposable income or purchasing power to support many of the new companies. The bubble will burst, but the benefits will be a new breed of tools that will improve the efficiency of our society, and by improving the efficiency we will be able to pursue greater technological and self-fulfilling goals. The burst will leave in its wake a new form of the internet which will be dynamic and stream data. Pop!
Reduce HOA Fees?
How can condo associations reduce the effect of non-payment by unit owners? The housing crisis has created a problem for many condo associations in the country because of owners who are delinquent on condo fee payments. An owner who faces foreclosure and is in default of their mortgage is not inclined to pay their HOA fees which places a burden on other owners in a condo association. Is there a way to generate additional revenue for condo associations in financial trouble? Yes, typically they attach liens to the property and or raise fees for everyone else which just exacerbates issues and reduces property value. Perhaps the HOA could borrow from a bank, but this would still result in an increase in owner fees. Perhaps the condo association could lease frontage to a developer to build-out retail space. An existing building or development would be converted to mixed-use, and unit owners could specify the type of retail they want which creates a customer base for future tenants. This model would not work for all condo associations; however our society has increased a desire for urban walkable communities, and this concept has the potential to create a walkable neighborhood. Additionally condo associations do not have to be in financial trouble to utilize the service, but it could be a way to reduce HOA fees or fund capital expenditures and common area improvements.
See link for Wall Street Journal article discussing condo association hardships.
Dia Beacon, Mass MoCa, Bilboa
If you build it they will come…..A new catalyst for economic development in depressed regions has been the investment in a museum, specifically a modern art museum. The Dia: Beacon museum revitalized Beacon, NY, Mass MoCa attracted art enthusiasts to North Adams, MA and the Bilbao Guggenheim changed Bilbao, the northern Spanish port. Why have these infusions of capital and culture revitalized former blue collar communities? The development of a museum attracts tourists who are willing to spend their money, but more importantly the museums attract artists to setup nearby. The artists are attracted by the culture surrounding the museum and the low costs of living. Artists tend to live in areas where there is a low cost of living in order to reduce overhead while they work on their art. The cost of living doesn’t stay low for long as a wealthier class is drawn to the new artist enclave and increase the living costs because of insufficient demand. Why do we visit museums? The curiosity and creativity of artists provide unique works of art which can be an outlet from our commercialized society. Each of these communities has capitalized on this theory and have populations which have either increased or stabilized since the development of a museum. The creativity and uniqueness attracts others and slowly artists are driven from their homes because of increasing costs. This pattern has been repeated in cities many times throughout history, and I believe the pattern will be repeated in the suburbs as artists are priced out of cities.
Trackr, Rdio, Scvngr, Producteev, Buump
Trackr, Rdio, Scvngr, Producteev, Buump . What do these names have in common? They are all recent internet startups. All the names are derivations of the words which describe their company’s function (Tracker, Radio, Scavenger, Productive, Buump). Most likely the young entrepreneurs chose their company name based on domain names which were available due limited financial resources, and that may have meant a word with removed vowels in order to remain didactic. Perhaps the next Google, or Facebook will be named Beggr, Drver, Wlthy…………..
Reality TV Stats
What happens when I’m bored………..
A few days ago I happened to be watching TV which isn’t too often, but I did see a preview for the upcoming season of the Bachelorette. The Bachelor/Bachelorette is reality TV series which has been on TV for a combined 22 seasons. The premise of the show is for a Bachelor(ette) to find a wife/husband among 25-30 contestants who jockey for the attention to be selected to continue on the show for another week as the Bachelor(ette) reduces the pool of contestants down to a single person whom they will propose to during the final episode. In following with the standard Reality TV format the show encourages extreme behavior as well as provocative and sexually suggestive situations. After watching the preview I questioned how the show continues to attract an audience and how each season is differentiated in order to reduce predictability. My prediction was that the show uses a younger pool of contestants each subsequent season in order to target a larger younger generation or increase specific behaviors to attract viewers.
To analyze my prediction I collected data of contestant ages from Wikipedia; however a few of the seasons were not available and due to time constraints I worked with what I was able to collect. The results may be skewed due to the gaps in data, but I was still able to prove a theory with what I was able to collect. Below you’ll see the statistics of the seasons I analyzed. From the data collected it was found that each subsequent season of the show experiences a younger pool of contestants which can be attributed to the decreasing standard deviation that signifies a pool of contestants closer to the mode therefore fewer older contestants because the average age tends to decrease as well and below the mode. Additionally I extrapolated that Bachelorettes were more likely to choose a contestant whose age was closer to their own while bacehlorettes age continued to decrease each subsequent season. The Bachelor was more likely to select a woman much younger than themselves regardless of the Bacehlor’s age. In order to strengthen my assumptions, I should analyze season ratings to determine if they increased or decreased depending on the age of contestants or Bachelors or Bachelorettes. Most likely I will not be watching this season, but my prediction for the upcoming season of the bacehlorette……she will select a contestant within 1.5 years of her own age and the pool of contestants will most likely have an average age of 28 with a standard deviation of 2.5.
Successful QR Code Prediction
If you remember from my earlier post (http://bit.ly/jtO1AI) about QR codes placed next to “No Smoking Sings” connected to the sales of Nicotine Gum. Well, I reviewed the performance of the QR codes, and surprisingly I managed a handful of code scans; however there have been no sales. The lack of sales is most likely due to the high price of the gum, but the main reason for this experiment was to challenge the prediction of whether individuals would bother to scan the code. As you can see in the performance report I have managed code scans which results in a successful prediction.
How Do Ski Areas Tweet?
I would think Twitter would be a great channel for ski areas to provide ski conditions for their customers. Individuals who plan to travel to a ski area are influenced by conditions at a specific resort and the travel time, and then they combine the information to generate a cost benefit analysis of which ski area will provide the most return (fun on the slopes). Perhaps ski areas could Tweet a form message that is consistent day to day in order to allow individuals to easily understand what the conditions are like, Keep it Simple! Additionally a link in the tweet would direct users to a website viewable on a mobile device with key stats and a few pictures of the current weather/mountain conditions. A barrage of superfluous tweets by a resort can cause someone to be overwhelmed and annoyed by the constant flow of unnecessary information. Obviously the ski area is trying to promote itself and create a dialog with customers, but I stopped following specific ski areas because of the constant stream of Tweets it was sending. See the image below for the various Tweets, and notice that there is no consistency between condition reports, so I have to analyze each report to ensure the conditions are what I am looking for which is opposed to a consistent message which can easily be deciphered. Its great that they are streaming all the information and actively promoting social media, but sometimes its too much and unnecessary. All I want are the facts.
The Future Value of Florida Real Estate
Florida Real Estate will not be in the doldrums for long. Top Retirement Destinations http://t.co/Joomfy5 . The Baby Boomers will need a place to retire, and if Florida had swelled with soo many retirees of the previous generation, I can only imagine the impact the Baby Boomers will have. I understand that Baby Boomers may not have as much money, but comparatively its still cheaper to live in Florida than to heat your home in the rust belt.
A Smaller Footprint for Best Buy
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Best Buy understands that its future is smaller. The slow demise of the Big Box store will encourage the retail giants to pare down their store size and accommodate a store format that will fit in smaller urban locations and sell fewer SKUs. Additionally Best Buy has experienced a reduced demand for floor space due to the digitization of music and now computer software as well as an increasing propensity for consumers to shop online. Perhaps RadioShack will experience a revival of its once ubiquitous electronics goto shop, but I think a resurgence would require a re-branding effort on their part.
Creative Concepts 